In 2001/2002, the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) conducted the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), the largest and most ambitious comorbidity (simultaneous presence of two chronic conditions in a patient) study ever conducted. In addition to an extensive battery of questions addressing present and past alcohol consumption, alcohol use disorders (AUDs), and utilization of alcohol treatment services, NESARC included similar sets of questions related to tobacco and illicit drug use (including nicotine dependence and drug use disorders).
The unprecedented sample size of NESARC (n = 43,093) made it possible to achieve stable estimates of even rare conditions. Moreover, its oversampling of Blacks and Hispanics as well as the inclusion of Hawaii and Alaska in its sampling frame yielded enough minority respondents to make NESARC an ideal vehicle for addressing the critical issue of race and/or ethnic disparities in comorbidity and access to health care services.
NESARC studies the occurrence of more than one psychological disorder or substance use disorder in the same person. In this analysis I have utilized the data collected in the survey for gambling and tried to determine its linkage to other predictors like alcoholic tendencies or drug use or other personality traits that can be detected. General information about the survey can be found here.
The following response variable was predicted: EVER GAMBLED 5+ TIMES IN ANY ONE YEAR (S12Q1).
The following variables (listed below in order of importance) were amongst those included as explanatory variables in Random Forest technique. The accuracy of the random forest was 74% with the maximum accuracy achievable with around 12 trees in the forest. Further increase in number of estimators (trees) did little to increase overall accuracy of the model. On closer examination of the variables found important by the model, we can see that an we can predict about the gambling tendencies of an individual by examining their alcohol consumption patterns, personality and drug use amongst other things.
The code and output is included below
| Variable | Description | Score |
|---|---|---|
| S1Q1G | NUMBER OF YEARS LIVED IN UNITED STATES | 0.059010 |
| S1Q10A | TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME IN LAST 12 MONTHS | 0.057991 |
| AGE | CYEAR (DATE OF INTERVIEW: YEAR) - DOBY (DATE OF BIRTH: YEAR) | 0.056678 |
| S1Q1E | ORIGIN OR DESCENT | 0.048400 |
| S1Q9B | OCCUPATION: CURRENT OR MOST RECENT JOB | 0.046075 |
| BUILDTYP | TYPE OF BUILDING FOR HOUSEHOLD | 0.036685 |
| MARITAL | CURRENT MARITAL STATUS | 0.029524 |
| SMOKER | TOBACCO USE STATUS | 0.028936 |
| NUMPERS | NUMBER OF PERSONS IN HOUSEHOLD | 0.027357 |
| S2AQ12B | HOW OFTEN DRANK AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LAST 12 MONTHS | 0.025185 |
| S10Q1A52 | THE SORT OF PERSON WHO DOESN'T CARE ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE THINK OF YOU | 0.024643 |
| S2AQ10 | HOW OFTEN DRANK ENOUGH TO FEEL INTOXICATED IN LAST 12 MONTHS | 0.024418 |
| S10Q1A16 | THE KIND OF PERSON WHO FOCUSES ON DETAILS/ORDER/ORGANIZATION OR LIKES TO MAKE LISTS AND SCHEDULES | 0.023065 |
| CHLD0_17 | NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER AGE 18 IN HOUSEHOLD | 0.022352 |
| S10Q1A20 | OTHERS THINK YOU HAVE UNREASONABLY HIGH STANDARDS/MORALS/IDEAS ABOUT RIGHT AND WRONG | 0.022323 |
| S10Q1A43 | ARE THERE VERY FEW PEOPLE YOU'RE REALLY CLOSE TO OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE FAMILY | 0.022088 |
| S10Q1A25 | HAVE OTHERS TOLD YOU THAT YOU ARE STUBBORN OR RIGID | 0.021601 |
| S11AQ1A2 | EVER STAY OUT LATE AT NIGHT EVEN THOUGH PARENTS TOLD YOU TO STAY HOME | 0.020961 |
| NUMPER18 | NUMBER OF PERSONS 18 YEARS AND OLDER IN HOUSEHOLD | 0.020405 |
| S11AQ1A1 | OFTEN CUT CLASS, NOT GO TO CLASS OR GO TO SCHOOL AND LEAVE WITHOUT PERMISSION | 0.020345 |
| S10Q1A45 | WOULD BE JUST HAPPY WITHOUT HAVING ANY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP | 0.020180 |
| NUMREL18 | NUMBER OF RELATED PERSONS 18 YEARS AND OLDER IN HOUSEHOLD | 0.019861 |
| S2AQ5G | HOW OFTEN DRANK 5+ BEERS IN LAST 12 MONTHS | 0.019397 |
| S3AQ3B1 | USUAL FREQUENCY WHEN SMOKED CIGARETTES | 0.019338 |
| S11BQ1 | BLOOD/NATURAL FATHER EVER HAD BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS | 0.018869 |
| S10Q1A47 | HAVE ALMOST ALWAYS PREFERRED TO DO THINGS ALONE RATHER THAN WITH OTHERS | 0.018636 |
| S11AQ1A25 | EVER DO SOMETHING YOU COULD HAVE BEEN ARRESTED FOR, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU WERE CAUGHT OR NOT | 0.018017 |
| S10Q1A22 | HARD TO LET OTHERS HELP IF THEY DON'T AGREE TO DO THINGS EXACTLY THE WAY YOU WANT | 0.017820 |
| DGSTATUS | DRUG USE STATUS | 0.017671 |
| S1Q1D5 | "WHITE" CHECKED IN MULTIRACE CODE | 0.017200 |
| S6Q1 | HAD PANIC ATTACK, SUDDENLY FELT FRIGHTENED/OVERWHELMED/NERVOUS AS IF IN GREAT DANGER BUT WERE NOT | 0.016674 |
| S11AQ1A14 | EVER DO THINGS THAT COULD EASILY HAVE HURT YOU OR SOMEONE ELSE, LIKE SPEEDING OR DRIVING AFTER HAVING TOO MUCH TO DRINK | 0.016527 |
| S2AQ12F | HOW OFTEN DROVE MOTOR VEHICLE AFTER 3+ DRINKS IN LAST 12 MONTHS | 0.016235 |
| S10Q1A58 | FLIRT A LOT | 0.015546 |
| S3AQ3B2 | USUAL FREQUENCY WHEN SMOKED CIGARS | 0.014674 |
| S2AQ9 | HOW OFTEN DRANK 4+ DRINKS OF ANY ALCOHOL IN LAST 12 MONTHS (WOMEN ONLY) | 0.014626 |
| S9Q1A | EVER HAD 6+ MONTH PERIOD FELT TENSE/NERVOUS/WORRIED MOST OF TIME | 0.014188 |
| S11AQ1A22 | EVER SHOPLIFT | 0.014131 |
| S10Q1A3 | FIND IT HARD TO BE "OPEN" EVEN WITH PEOPLE YOU ARE CLOSE TO | 0.013714 |
| S10Q1A32 | OFTEN GET ANGRY OR LASH OUT WHEN SOMEONE CRITICIZES OR INSULTS YOU | 0.013670 |
| S10Q1A46 | TAKE LITTLE PLEASURE IN BEING WITH OTHERS | 0.012579 |
| S11AQ1A15 | EVER GET MORE THAN 3 TICKETS FOR RECKLESS/CARELESS DRIVING, SPEEDING, OR CAUSING AN ACCIDENT | 0.012403 |
The code and output is included below
Confusion Matrix:
[[11983 892]
[ 3540 823]]
Accuracy Score is: 0.742893607147
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